原文：If there is a single technology America needs to bring about the "thrilling new era of national success"[3] that President Donald Trump promised in his inauguration speech[4], it is generative artificial intelligence. At the very least, ai will add to the next decade's productivity gains[5], fuelling economic growth. At the most, it will power humanity through a transformation comparable[6] to the Industrial Revolution.(C)

中文翻译：

如果说美国需要一项技术来实现特朗普总统在就职演说中承诺的"令人振奋的国家成功新时代"，那就是生成式人工智能。这项技术至少能在未来十年提升生产力，推动经济增长。最理想的情况是，它将推动人类经历一场堪比工业革命的变革。

原文：

Mr Trump's hosting the next day of the launch of "the largest ai infrastructure project in history"[7] shows he grasps the potential. But so does the rest of the world—and most of all, China. Even as Mr Trump was giving his inaugural oration[8], a Chinese firm released the latest impressive large language model (LLM)[9]. Suddenly, America's lead over China in ai looks smaller than at any time since ChatGPT became famous.(E)

中文翻译：

特朗普第二天主持"历史上最大的AI基础设施项目"启动仪式，表明他已认识到这一潜力。但世界其他国家也同样认识到了这一点——尤其是中国。就在特朗普发表就职演说时，一家中国公司发布了最新的令人印象深刻的大语言模型(LLM)。突然之间，美国在AI领域对中国的领先优势，比自ChatGPT走红以来的任何时候都要小。

原文：

China's catch-up is startling[10] because it had been so far behind—and because America had set out to slow it down. So America has curtailed[11] exports to China of the best chips for training ai and cut off China's access to many of the machines needed to make substitutes[12]. Behind its protective wall, Silicon Valley has swaggered[13]. Chinese researchers devour American papers on ai; Americans have rarely returned the compliment.(G)

中文翻译：

中国的追赶令人震惊，因为它曾经落后很多——而且美国一直在试图减缓它的发展。因此，美国限制了用于训练AI的最好芯片对华出口，并切断了中国获取制造替代品所需的许多机器的渠道。在这道保护墙后面，硅谷趾高气扬。中国研究人员如饥似渴地阅读美国的AI论文；而美国人却很少投桃报李。

原文：

Yet China's most recent progress is upending[14] the industry and embarrassing American policymakers. The success of the Chinese models, combined with industry-wide changes, could turn the economics of AI on its head[15]. America must prepare for a world in which Chinese AI is breathing down its neck[16].(I)

中文翻译：

然而，中国最近的进展正在颠覆这个行业，让美国政策制定者难堪。中国模型的成功，加上整个行业的变革，可能会彻底改变AI的经济格局。美国必须为中国AI紧随其后的世界做好准备。

原文：

China's LLMs are not the very best. But they are far cheaper to make. QwQ, owned by Alibaba, an e-commerce giant, was launched in November and is less than three months behind America's top models. DeepSeek, whose creator was spun out[17] of an investment firm, ranks seventh by one benchmark[18]. It was apparently trained using 2,000 second-rate chips—versus 16,000 first-class chips for Meta's model, which DeepSeek beats on some rankings. The cost of training an American LLM is tens of millions of dollars and rising. DeepSeek's owner says it spent under $6m.(K)

中文翻译：

中国的大语言模型不是最好的。但它们的制作成本要低得多。阿里巴巴这个电商巨头旗下的QwQ于11月推出，与美国顶级模型的差距不到三个月。由一家投资公司分拆出来的DeepSeek的开发者，在某项基准测试中排名第七。据称，它使用2000个二流芯片进行训练——相比之下，Meta的模型使用了16000个一流芯片，而DeepSeek在某些排名上还超过了Meta。训练一个美国大语言模型的成本高达数千万美元且还在上涨。DeepSeek的所有者称其支出不到600万美元。

原文：

American firms can copy DeepSeek's techniques if they want to, because its model is open-source[19]. But cheap training will change the industry at the same time as model design is evolving[20]. China's inauguration-day release was DeepSeek's "reasoning" model, designed to compete with a state-of-the-art[21] offering by OpenAI. These models talk to themselves before answering a query. This "thinking" produces a better answer, but it also uses more electricity. As the quality of output goes up, the costs mount[22].(M)

中文翻译：

美国公司如果愿意的话可以复制DeepSeek的技术，因为它的模型是开源的。但廉价训练将在模型设计不断发展的同时改变整个行业。中国在就职日发布的是DeepSeek的"推理"模型，旨在与OpenAI的最先进产品竞争。这些模型在回答问题前会进行自我对话。这种"思考"能产生更好的答案，但也会消耗更多电力。随着输出质量的提高，成本也在攀升。

原文：

The result is that, just as China has brought down the fixed cost of building models, so the marginal cost[23] of querying them is going up. If those two trends continue, the economics of the tech industry would invert[24]. In web search and social networking, replicating a giant incumbent[25] like Google involved enormous fixed costs of investment and the capacity to bear huge losses. But the cost per search was infinitesimal[26]. This—and the network effects inherent to many web technologies—made such markets winner-takes-all.(O)

中文翻译：

结果是，就在中国降低了建模的固定成本的同时，查询模型的边际成本却在上升。如果这两种趋势持续下去，科技行业的经济规律将会颠倒。在网络搜索和社交网络领域，要复制像谷歌这样的巨型在位者需要巨额固定成本投资，并具备承受巨大损失的能力。但每次搜索的成本却微乎其微。这一点——再加上许多网络技术固有的网络效应——使得此类市场呈现赢家通吃的局面。

原文：

If good-enough AI models can be trained relatively cheaply, then models will proliferate[27], especially as many countries are desperate[28] to have their own. And a high cost-per-query may likewise encourage more built-for-purpose[29] models that yield efficient, specialised answers with minimal querying.(Q)

中文翻译：

如果足够好的AI模型能够以相对低廉的成本训练出来，那么模型就会激增，特别是在许多国家都迫切希望拥有自己的模型的情况下。而高昂的单次查询成本可能同样会促使更多专门用途的模型出现，这些模型能以最少的查询次数产生高效、专业的答案。

原文：

The other consequence of China's breakthrough is that America faces asymmetric[30] competition. It is now clear that China will innovate around obstacles such as a lack of the best chips, whether by efficiency gains[31] or by compensating for an absence of high-quality hardware with more quantity. China's homegrown[32] chips are getting better, including those designed by Huawei, a technology firm that a generation ago achieved widespread adoption[33] of its telecoms equipment with a cheap-and-cheerful approach.(R)

中文翻译：

中国突破的另一个结果是美国面临着非对称竞争。现在很明显，中国将通过创新来克服障碍，比如缺乏最好的芯片，无论是通过提高效率，还是用数量来弥补高质量硬件的缺失。中国自主研发的芯片正在变得更好，包括华为设计的芯片，这家科技公司在一代人之前就通过价廉物美的方式使其电信设备获得广泛应用。

If China stays close to the frontier[34], it could be the first to make the leap to superintelligence[35]. Should that happen, it might gain more than just a military advantage. In a superintelligence scenario, winner-takes-all dynamics may suddenly reassert[36] themselves. Even if the industry stays on today's track, the widespread adoption of Chinese AI around the world could give enormous political influence[37], at least as worrying as the propaganda threat posed by TikTok, a Chinese-owned video-sharing app whose future in America remains unclear.(S)

中文翻译：

如果中国紧跟前沿，它可能会首先实现向超级智能的跨越。如果那样的情况发生，它获得的可能不仅仅是军事优势。在超级智能场景下，赢家通吃的动态可能会突然重现。即使行业保持当前轨道，中国AI在全球的广泛应用也可能带来巨大的政治影响力，这至少与TikTok带来的宣传威胁一样令人担忧，而这个中国拥有的的视频分享应用在美国的未来仍不明朗。

原文：

What should Mr Trump do? His infrastructure announcement was a good start. America must clear legal obstacles to building data centres. It should also ensure that hiring foreign engineers is easy, and reform defence procurement[38] to encourage the rapid adoption of ai. Some argue that he should also repeal[39] the chip-industry export bans. The Biden administration conceded[40] that the ban failed to contain Chinese AI. Yet that does not mean it accomplished nothing. In the worst case, AI could be as deadly[41] as nuclear weapons. America would never ship its adversaries the components for nukes, even if they had other ways of getting them. Chinese AI would surely be stronger still if it now regained easy access to the very best chips.(T)

中文翻译：

特朗普应该怎么做？他的基础设施公告是个好的开始。美国必须清除建设数据中心的法律障碍。它还应确保雇佣外国工程师变得容易，并改革国防采购以鼓励AI的快速应用。一些人认为他还应该废除芯片行业的出口禁令。拜登政府承认禁令未能遏制中国AI。然而这并不意味着它没有任何成效。在最坏的情况下，AI可能像核武器一样致命。美国永远不会向对手运送核武器的零部件，即使他们有其他获取方式。如果现在重新获得最好芯片的便利访问，中国AI肯定会变得更强大。

原文：

More important is to pare back[42] Mr Biden's draft "AI diffusion rule", which would govern which countries have access to American technology. This is designed to force other countries into America's ai ecosystem, but the tech industry has argued that, by laying down red tape[43], it will do the opposite.(U) With every Chinese advance, this objection becomes more credible[44]. If America assumes that its technology is the only option for the likes of India or Indonesia, it risks overplaying its hand. Some tech whizzes[45] promise the next innovation will once again put America far in front. Perhaps. But it would be dangerous to take America's lead for granted.

中文翻译：

更重要的是削减拜登的"AI扩散规则"草案，该规则将管理哪些国家可以获得美国技术。这旨在迫使其他国家进入美国的AI生态系统，但科技行业认为，通过设置官僚障碍，它反而会适得其反。随着中国每一步的进展，这种反对意见变得更加可信。如果美国认为其技术是印度或印度尼西亚等国家的唯一选择，就有过度施压的风险。一些科技奇才承诺下一个创新将再次让美国遥遥领先。也许吧。但认为美国的领先地位理所当然将是危险的。